Steve Peers

The recent Conservative majority win in the UK brings up significant questions regarding the UK’s continued membership in the European Union. This piece will initially address concerns surrounding the referendum and the renegotiation process.

The Brexit Referendum

What are the main issues surrounding the approaching referendum?

The new government’s plan to renegotiate the UK’s EU membership followed by a referendum (Brexit) based on the renegotiation’s results by the end of 2017 is paramount. They will likely introduce a government bill similar to the one from the previous parliament.

Furthermore, opposing a referendum is pointless for pro-Europeans, both in principle and tactically. Instead, their focus should be on securing a win.

Additionally, given the Conservatives’ ability to use the usual UK general election franchise for the referendum, the idea of including all EU citizens residing in the UK in the voting process is a moot point. Expanding the franchise, while understandable, would be incorrect in principle and tactically disadvantageous.

Contrary to some beliefs, there is no guarantee that the “leave” side will win. Polling indicates that support for remaining in the EU has increased and surpasses support for leaving, even before any renegotiations. While polls should be viewed cautiously after the recent election, the pro-EU lead surpasses typical polling errors. Moreover, the election shouldn’t be interpreted as a vote for Brexit, as the Conservative campaign focused on renegotiation and referendum, not outright exit, and did not even come close to securing 40% of the votes.

Renegotiation

Three major political factors will likely shape the renegotiation discussion and influence the subsequent referendum in the next two and a half years.

Firstly, the relationship between David Cameron and his party, especially its Eurosceptic members, will be important. Cameron’s decision for renegotiation and a referendum, particularly his focus on EU immigration, stemmed from pressure from his backbenchers and concerns about losing votes to UKIP. While the latter concern might lessen due to the election results, the former could escalate. A crucial question is whether Cameron, despite his small majority and potential pressure from Eurosceptic backbenchers, will soften his stance during negotiations, especially as he plans to retire at the end of this parliament. His ability to secure support from other parties, should his own rebel, will be critical.

A key point is that the Conservative party has a mandate for renegotiation and referendum based on Cameron’s terms. Some Eurosceptics mistakenly believe that the UK has the leverage to demand and obtain any renegotiation terms from the EU. However, the lukewarm response from other member states to Cameron’s initial demands indicates that they are already pushing the boundaries of what is acceptable. Eurosceptics unsatisfied with the current demands should openly join the pro-Brexit movement rather than pressuring Cameron into making unrealistic demands, hoping that rejection from other Member States will push him to abandon renegotiation and campaign for Brexit.

Secondly, other Member States’ actions following the UK election outcome will be crucial. While there was previously little interest in renegotiation talks, understandably due to the pending elections and lack of a formal request (it was solely a Conservative party policy), these obstacles are now gone.

Whether other Member States are willing to engage in renegotiation remains to be seen. The stance of key members like Germany and traditional allies like the Netherlands and Ireland will be critical. Dismissing the UK’s request would be unwise, given its financial contributions and trade relationship with the EU. However, engaging in negotiations doesn’t mean the UK can expect all its demands to be met. The renegotiation process itself will raise legal questions about its form and substance, which will require further examination.

Thirdly, the role of other UK political parties will be pivotal. While Cameron might need their support to counter potential rebellion from his party, pro-EU parties should prioritize the UK’s EU membership over creating difficulties for Cameron. Although lacking direct influence on renegotiations due to the Conservative majority, these parties are essential for securing a ‘yes’ vote in the Brexit referendum, as Conservative votes alone, which include many against EU membership, won’t be enough.

This impacts the renegotiation’s content. While many Conservatives favor a renewed opt-out from the social chapter, this could deter left-leaning voters from supporting continued EU membership. Similarly, significant deviations from the EU working time directive, beyond reasonable adjustments, risk fueling anti-EU sentiment.

This means pro-EU opposition parties must collaborate with some Conservatives despite potential animosity after two years of Conservative rule. However, rejecting EU membership will neither remove the Conservative government nor force Cameron’s resignation. Additionally, strong proponents of free movement must accept that some limitations on this freedom are inevitable in the renegotiation process to preserve the principle.

For anti-EU parties, mainly UKIP and a segment of the Conservatives, the challenge lies in presenting a convincing alternative to the UK’s EU membership. While alternatives like the European Economic Area exist, they are often deemed unattractive by Eurosceptics due to the free movement of people. Any other option necessitates a new agreement with other member states. The anti-EU side must not only agree on a unified vision but also convince the public that other Member States will accept it.

This mirrors the Scottish independence referendum, where the SNP presented a detailed independence plan but failed to assure voters of its acceptance by the rest of the UK. This might prove to be the downfall of the anti-EU campaign.

The general election results are undeniably shocking and disappointing for non-Conservatives. However, the looming Brexit referendum offers a chance to fight, alongside pro-EU Conservatives, for shared values like employment rights, environmental and consumer protection, human rights, animal welfare, global openness, and economic prosperity fueled by trade and free movement. This is a moment to seize, not to despair.

*This post is linked to research for my forthcoming book from Hart Publishing – Brexit: The Legal Framework for Withdrawal from the EU or Renegotiation of EU Membership

Barnard & Peers: chapter 2

Image: ConservativeHome.com