The Chinese job platform Zhaopin and the China Institute for Employment Research (CIER) at Renmin University have published their CIER Employment Index Report for July to September 2015.
The report’s index, which measures the ease of finding a job, rose consistently from 2011 to 2014. However, mirroring the economic slowdown, the job market has weakened, leading to a decline in the CIER Index for the past two quarters. The index dropped from its peak of 2.46 in the first quarter of 2015 to 2.03 in the second quarter and further down to 1.96 in the third quarter, signaling diminishing confidence in the job market.
E-commerce led all sectors in the third quarter of 2015 with a CIER Index score of 5.63, followed by funds/securities/futures/investment at 5.33. The top ten performing sectors all scored above 2.5, reflecting strong job-seeking confidence. Conversely, the bottom ten sectors all scored below 1.0, suggesting an oversupply of job seekers.
The highest-performing sectors encompass finance and burgeoning service industries like e-commerce, while the weakest sectors were primarily in traditional manufacturing and services.
Sectors with the highest likelihood of employment in Q3 2015
CIER Index
E-commerce
5.63
Funds/securities/futures/investment
5.33
Insurance
4.51
Education/training/college
3.32
Real estate/construction/building materials
/engineering
3.22
Agency
2.93
Logistics/warehousing
2.79
Professional service/consulting
(accounting/law/human resource)
2.74
Traffic/transportation
2.71
Farming/forestry/animal husbandry/fishery
2.50
Sectors with the lowest likelihood of employment in Q3 2015
CIER Index
Accounting/auditing
0.44
Energy/mineral/mining/smelting
0.58
Aerospace research and manufacturing
0.62
Rental service
0.64
Electricity/power/water conservancy
0.69
Office supplies and equipment
0.70
Inspection/testing/authentication
0.71
Academia/research
0.72
Property management/business centre
0.79
Environmental protection
0.82
In the third quarter of 2015, total recruitment demand within the IT/Internet sector surged by 41% year-over-year. E-commerce demand in third and fourth-tier cities more than doubled, while demand in first, emerging first, and second-tier cities increased by over 50%. The online gaming sector experienced a 72% and 130% rise in demand in second and third-tier cities, respectively.
Year-over-year change in recruitment demand from the IT/Internet sector in Q3 2015
IT/Internet
41%
IT services (system, data, maintenance)
9%
Computer software
24%
Computer hardware
0%
E-commerce
65%
Online games
18%
Total recruitment demand from the financial sector saw a 29% year-over-year increase in the third quarter of 2015. Within the sector, banking experienced a 45% rise in demand, while funds/securities/futures/investment witnessed a 28% increase.
The expansion of financial services to lower-tier cities fueled a 70% year-over-year growth in recruitment demand within the financial sector in these areas, outpacing the growth in first and second-tier cities.
Year-on-year change in recruitment demand from the financial sector in Q3 2015
Financial sector
29%
Funds/securities/futures/investment
28%
Trusts/warrants/auctions/pawn-broking
50%
Banking
45%
Driven by economic stimulus initiatives, especially those directed towards infrastructure projects, the traffic/transportation sector experienced steady growth in recruitment demand. Fueled by investments in railway and road construction, which amounted to RMB421.6 billion in September 2015, the sector’s recruitment demand increased by 18% year-over-year in the third quarter, a significant jump from the 3% growth in the previous quarter. Notably, demand in third-tier cities and below skyrocketed by 87%.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative spurred new growth in foreign trade during the third quarter of 2015, prompting many Chinese businesses to expand their overseas investments and, consequently, their need for specialized professionals. This led to an 18% year-over-year increase in recruitment demand within the trade/import & export sector.
The real estate sector, grappling with financial and operational challenges for major firms, has yet to recover from the previous year’s downturn. As a result, recruitment demand in this sector continued to contract, registering a 15% year-over-year decline in the third quarter of 2015.
Year-on-year change in recruitment demand across sectors in Q3 2015
IT/Internet
41%
Financial
29%
Traffic/transportation
18%
Trade/import & export
18%
Telecommunication
17%
Retail/wholesale
14%
Medicine/biotechnology
13%
Manufacturing
10%
Fast-moving consumer goods
7%
Automobile/motorcycle
4%
Durable consumer goods
1%
Real estate
-15%
Geographically, the CIER Index score for Eastern and Central China remained stable from the second to the third quarter of 2015. However, Western China saw a considerable decline due to heightened competition for limited job openings. Central China’s recruitment demand surged by 24% year-over-year in the third quarter, surpassing the growth rates of 17% and 14% observed in Eastern and Western China, respectively. This growth in Central China is attributed to the government’s urbanization strategy, which has stimulated economic activities in the central plains and middle Yangtze River regions.
Area
_ CIER Index_
Year-on-year change in
recruitment demand
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q3 2015
Eastern China
1.95
1.95
17%
Central China
1.63
1.60
24%
Western China
1.44
1.35
14%
City
Year-on-year change in
recruitment demand
Q3 2015
First-tier
14%
Emerging first-tier
15%
Second-tier
23%
Third-tier
37%
The CIER Index reveals stronger confidence among micro and small enterprises. In the third quarter of 2015, the ranking of CIER Index scores based on company size, from highest to lowest, was as follows:
Company size
CIER Index
Year-on-year change in
recruitment demand
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q3 2015
Small
2.83
2.55
17%
Micro
1.77
2.16
52%
Medium
1.36
1.37
19%
Large
1.26
1.21
5%
Small and micro-sized enterprises had higher CIER Index scores compared to medium and large-sized enterprises. This difference is attributed to government policies promoting innovation and entrepreneurship as engines for the new economy, which benefits smaller enterprises that possess greater growth potential and, therefore, higher demand for labor. Recruitment demand from micro-sized companies experienced a remarkable 52% year-over-year surge in the third quarter of 2015, outpacing the growth observed in larger companies.
Zhaopin and CIER predict a downward trend in the seasonally adjusted monthly CIER Index scores in the upcoming months due to China’s macroeconomic climate. However, they also highlight China’s “Internet Plus” strategy, which is expected to generate more employment opportunities and reshape the country’s workforce. As various industries seek professionals with Internet-related expertise, there will be a cross-industry flow of such talent. Furthermore, emerging sectors like big data and cloud computing are creating new businesses and driving job growth. The demand for Internet/IT talent is projected to persist, particularly within the e-commerce sector.
Looking at geographic regions, increasing urbanization and social development are anticipated to continue attracting talent to Eastern and Central China. Concurrently, demand from several hundred small and mid-sized cities beyond China’s major urban centers is on the rise, creating a more favorable job market and expanding employment options in these locations.
*The _CIER Index _score is determined by dividing the number of available job positions on Zhaopin.com during a specific period by the number of individual job seekers who submitted applications during the same period. The calculation only considers new job postings within the given timeframe and excludes postings made before the period, even if they remained active. Each job posting might represent multiple job openings.
A CIER Index score exceeding 1 suggests high confidence for job seekers, while a score below 1 implies low confidence.
**The IT/Internet sector encompasses IT services (system, data, maintenance), computer software, computer hardware, e-commerce, and online games.
***The financial sector includes funds/securities/futures/investment, banking, and trusts/warrants/auctions/pawn-broking.