Search engine optimization (SEO) is challenging and requires patience as its effects become noticeable over time. While consistent organic traffic growth is achievable, reaching a plateau where significant progress becomes difficult is common.

The graph illustrates how nexus-security’s traffic growth since 2009 has plateaued. In the past, ranking mediocre content was easier due to the availability of numerous spammy techniques. However, Google’s algorithms have become more sophisticated, and competition has intensified with more websites vying for the limited space on the first page of search results, rendering these tactics ineffective.

Recently, I observed a decline in organic traffic for some well-ranked pages on our site. Despite maintaining top positions, the traffic decrease was puzzling. Suspecting that new features on Google’s search engine results pages (SERPs) were impacting our organic click-through rate (CTR), I decided to investigate further.

Methodology of the Study

This study analyzed 24 keywords from our website, primarily informational, for which our rankings remained relatively stable, mostly at position #1, for two years (May 2015 to April 2017). The analysis used Search Console data and excluded device or country filters. We focused on keywords where our ranking remained consistent to isolate the impact of SERP changes. This approach helps determine whether CTR fluctuations are independent of ranking variations. My colleagues Meg Lister and Josh Brackett provided invaluable assistance with their expertise in Excel and statistics, while our designer Kate Lindsay enhanced the visual presentation of the graphs.

Key Finding: Median CTR Dropped by 37%

Across the 24 keywords, the average position change was -0.1%, which is negligible. However, we observed a significant average CTR decline of -28%, with a median decrease of -37%.

Only three keywords experienced CTR growth (3%, 4%, and 37%), while the rest declined, with the most significant drop being -79%. It’s important to highlight that these keywords were not selectively chosen to support a specific conclusion; they represent the first 24 keywords that met the criteria of stable ranking over the two-year period.

Impact on Organic Impression Volume

While overall impressions for these keywords grew substantially by 63%, the decline in CTR prevented us from fully capitalizing on this increase. Consequently, clicks only rose by 21% during the same timeframe.

This trend is concerning, as it indicates that despite broader reach, our ability to convert impressions into traffic is diminishing.

Featured Snippets and Their Effect on CTR

Out of the 24 keywords, 17 had Featured Snippets we owned. Despite this, these keywords showed an average position change of 0% and a median CTR decline of -39%. This finding implies that even with Featured Snippet ownership, organic CTR for a top-ranking position has decreased since 2015. Furthermore, the decline in CTR is not attributed to increased competition from ads, as 16 of these keywords do not display any ads on the SERP.

Interestingly, keywords without a Featured Snippet (6 out of 24) experienced a smaller median CTR decline of -32%. This suggests that the Featured Snippet might be associated with a CTR reduction, which appears counterintuitive. This phenomenon makes sense for keywords phrased as simple questions, such as “how tall was Abraham Lincoln” or “when is the Super Bowl,” where the answer is directly provided on the SERP, eliminating the need to click through. A recent example is the website Celebrity Net Worth, which suffered a significant traffic drop due to Google’s Featured Snippets directly answering users’ queries about celebrity net worth.

This emphasizes the importance of addressing COMPLEX questions in Featured Snippets to drive valuable traffic. However, most keywords in our analysis were not simple questions, suggesting that users were seeking more in-depth information.

Reasons for Organic CTR Decline for Top Rankings

Identifying the exact reasons behind this trend is challenging, but several factors might be contributing.

Click Loss to Ads

One plausible explanation could be the increase in Google’s monetization efforts on SERPs, such as increasing the number of top ads from three to four last year while removing right-rail ads.

I remember when there were ads there. However, this change has minimal impact on the analyzed keywords as only four triggered ads, and only one displayed four top ads. Consequently, ads alone do not fully explain the observed CTR decline.

Impact of Other SERP Features

Some keywords triggered Featured Snippets we didn’t own, even though we held the #1 ranking. Introduced in 2015, the prevalence of Featured Snippets increased throughout 2016 (as confirmed by Dr. Pete) and currently appears on about 15% of queries, according to MozCast.

Additionally, ten keywords triggered a “People also ask” (Related Questions) feature, as shown below.

While our industry may not exhibit many other SERP features, such as images, videos, knowledge panels, local packs, or card-style carousels, their presence in other sectors could be influencing CTRs. Furthermore, data from Moz recently published some fascinating data (in partnership with Jumpshot) reveals that a staggering one-third of searches result in no clicks, indicating that users often find the information they need directly on the SERP. Rand Fishkin predicts that this trend will continue, with Google resolving half of all search queries without a click in the future.

Mobile Devices and CTR

Another factor contributing to the decline in CTR could be the rise in mobile search, which currently accounts for about 20% of our site traffic, up from 13% in May 2015. Here’s the May 2015 breakdown:

And here’s March 2017:

While detailed device-specific CTR data from 2015 is unavailable for comparison, it’s important to acknowledge that organic CTR tends to be lower on mobile devices. Moz/Jumpshot data indicates that only 40.9% of mobile searches result in an organic click, compared to 62.2% on desktop.

Furthermore, data from according to Advanced Web Ranking shows that “ranking #1 in Google has a 23.5% mobile click-through rate, down from 28.6% in 2015,” indicating that CTR decline is a trend across all devices, not just mobile. While none of these factors (larger ads, other organic features, shifts in mobile usage) fully explain the observed CTR dip, a combination of these, along with other minor ranking factors, is likely responsible.

A Caveat to Consider

This analysis focuses on nexus-security.github.io account data, representing only the marketing vertical. Results may differ significantly for other industries, potentially showing a more pronounced CTR decline for industries with less emphasis on content marketing, leading to a higher proportion of commercial keywords compared to informational ones.

Strategies to Counter Declining Organic CTR

Despite the disheartening trend, it’s crucial to maintain focus and adapt strategies accordingly:

• Prioritize increasing organic CTRs by creating high-quality content that aligns with user intent and crafting compelling headlines and meta descriptions that clearly communicate the value proposition.
• Expand content marketing efforts to create more opportunities to rank for relevant keywords. Explore off-topic content that resonates with a broader audience and strengthens brand affinity, leveraging remarketing to convert those visitors.
• Diversify traffic sources by investing in social media promotion, email marketing, pay-per-click (PPC) advertising, and other channels to offset potential losses on the organic SERP.

In Summary

Despite the limitations of our dataset:

• The study suggests that the value of a #1 Google ranking, at least in terms of CTR, has diminished by 37% in just two years, making it harder to capitalize on increased impressions.
• Featured Snippets, while seemingly beneficial, are associated with a more significant CTR decrease compared to SERPs without them, even when considering keywords where we own the Featured Snippet. This finding holds a statistical significance of 99%. These results are surprising and underscore the need to adapt SEO strategies in response to the evolving search landscape. What are your thoughts on these findings? Have you observed similar trends in your industry?