Professor Steve Peers

As the referendum campaign concludes, undecided voters should consider the arguments for remaining in the European Union. This piece outlines the reasons for staying, addressing counter-arguments from the Leave campaign.

Why Remain?

Staying in the EU offers several advantages: economic benefits, security, improved workers’ rights, and environmental protection. Let’s examine each.

Economic Benefits

EU membership grants the UK access to the world’s largest market, along with trade deals with 50 additional countries. Renegotiating this access if we leave is uncertain and risky.

A Remain vote guarantees this market access, explaining why most British businesses support EU membership. Losing this access would harm not just trade-related jobs but the broader economy due to reduced investment and government spending capacity.

Recent economic indicators highlight Brexit risks. The pound and stock markets declined when a Leave vote seemed likely, and capital flight was reported. The Bank of England even drafted crisis plans for a Leave outcome.

While economic predictions can be flawed, notable economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crash, has cautioned against Brexit’s economic fallout. Conversely, pro-Brexit economists have a less reliable track record and even predict reduced economic growth post-Brexit.

Strikingly, some pro-Brexit economists admit that Brexit would necessitate a significant reduction in UK manufacturing, negatively impacting workers, families, and communities.

Security

EU membership brings numerous laws on police and criminal law cooperation. These have helped the UK apprehend more fugitives for trial both domestically and internationally, with increased data exchange on alleged terrorists and criminals. The UK justice system remains unaffected due to opt-outs.

Non-EU countries have limited access to these measures, and renegotiating access post-Brexit would be legally complex, as demonstrated by the challenges faced by the USA.

Therefore, only a Remain vote guarantees participation in these crucial security measures.

Workers’ Rights

EU laws have undeniably strengthened workers’ rights in the UK, including equal treatment for women, exceeding the level they would otherwise be. EU rulings have improved rights for pregnant workers, maternity leave, equal pay, paid holidays, and pension protection. It’s no surprise that a large majority of trade unions back EU membership.

Conversely, many Leave proponents have openly expressed a desire to dismantle these protections. Nigel Farage, for example, has stated that women who have had children are “worth less” to employers.

Consequently, a Remain vote is the only way to safeguard these rights. A Leave vote would endanger these protections by putting them in the hands of those opposed to them.

Environmental Protection

A range of EU laws safeguard the environment, encompassing air and beach quality, and nature preservation. This explains the Green party and environmental NGOs’ support for EU membership.

The pro-Brexit environment minister admitted his intention to scrap many EU environmental laws post-Brexit. Additionally, Leave-supporting businesses have listed dozens of environmental laws they wish to repeal.

A Remain vote guarantees the continuation of these environmental protections, while a Leave vote would jeopardize them.

Addressing the Leave Campaign

Risks of Remaining

The Leave campaign’s claims of risks associated with remaining in the EU are unfounded. The UK holds veto power over crucial areas like tax laws, defense, foreign policy, EU enlargement, budget contributions (including the UK rebate), trade deals with non-EU nations (like TTIP), and power transfers to the EU. Turkey’s EU accession is a distant prospect. The UK also has opt-outs from the euro, Eurozone bailouts, Schengen, and EU asylum and criminal law.

Safeguards are in place, often requiring referendums and parliamentary approval for significant decisions, such as joining the euro or creating an EU army.

Economic Arguments

The Leave campaign’s economic case for leaving is weak. While leaving would theoretically allow the UK to strike independent trade deals, this would be challenging. Renegotiating existing trade deals with non-EU countries, many favorable to the UK, would be necessary.

Simultaneously, the UK would have to renegotiate access to its biggest trading partner, the EU. While both parties have an interest in a deal, trade negotiations can be lengthy and sometimes fail.

Furthermore, the Leave side’s preference for a free trade deal with the EU over single market access raises concerns. The single market grants better access to services markets, where the UK has a significant trade surplus.

Leave campaigners have often responded to economic questions with uncertainty or indifference, with some suggesting economic downturn as an acceptable cost of leaving the EU.

Nigel Farage’s disregard for the potential impact of Brexit on the UK’s pharmaceutical industry, a major employer with substantial exports to the EU, exemplifies this attitude.

While Boris Johnson pledged an apology for any Brexit-induced recession, this offers little consolation for job losses. The Leave campaign lacks a coherent economic plan post-Brexit and appears indifferent to potential economic consequences.

While the UK is a net contributor to the EU budget, the Leave side inflates the amount. Considering the rebate, the net contribution represents 1% of public spending or 12p per day per taxpayer.

This contribution wouldn’t significantly impact the NHS or austerity measures. The Institute for Fiscal Studies highlights that even a small Brexit-related economic downturn would affect the UK budget more than its EU contribution.

Sovereignty

The Leave side’s claim that the UK must leave the EU to regain sovereignty is misleading. Decisions on EU laws are made by elected ministers from each member state and the European Parliament, not unelected bureaucrats. Moreover, the UK has supported 95% of EU legislation.

Contrary to claims, the House of Commons estimates that only 13% of UK laws originate from the EU. Even if the Leave side’s figure of 60% were accurate, the percentage imposed against the UK’s will would be minimal, highlighting the exaggeration of the sovereignty issue.

Immigration

The Leave side’s stance on immigration overlooks crucial facts. Most UK immigrants are non-EU citizens, over whom the UK has control.

While EU law governs EU citizen immigration, they require employment or self-sufficiency to remain. The UK can and does withhold benefits and can expel those posing security risks or with criminal records.

Non-EU citizens attempting to enter the UK from the EU would continue to do so post-Brexit. In fact, leaving the Dublin system for asylum seekers might complicate, not ease, migration control.

A trade-off exists between EU migration and the economic benefits of membership. Wealthy non-EU countries like Norway and Switzerland, with free movement agreements, have higher migrant populations than the UK.

Is There a Left-Wing Case for Leaving?

The ‘Lexit’ argument, advocating a left-wing exit from the EU, is flawed. A Brexit vote wouldn’t guarantee a left-wing government. Instead, it would likely empower the right wing of the Conservative Party, known for austerity measures and skepticism towards the NHS.

Despite plans to dismantle environmental and employment laws post-Brexit, Lexit proponents seem to have misplaced faith in the Conservatives to protect these rights.

In Conclusion

While the UK faces challenges, leaving the EU offers no solutions to most of them. The UK government controls nearly every significant aspect, including the majority of immigration.

Remaining in the EU amplifies the UK’s strengths, ensuring trade with its largest market and 50 other nations. It safeguards cooperation on policing and criminal law, and protects workers’ and environmental rights.

Leaving offers no guarantees, only risks: economic risks of reduced trade and investment; security risks of diminished cooperation; and social and environmental risks of weakened protections.

These risks are amplified when considering the minimal impact of the EU on UK sovereignty and the exaggerated nature of the Leave campaign’s arguments. Essentially, they advocate for a drastic measure based on a minor grievance.

Ultimately, voting to Remain offers the best path to economic growth, preservation of EU membership benefits, and minimal impact on UK sovereignty.

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