It has come to my attention that Google has been displaying only 7 organic search results on page one for numerous searches, a departure from the usual 10. To illustrate, consider this search for “adwords,” which yields just 7 organic search results.

Dr. Pete also observed this trend and reported on the SEOmoz blog that Google reduced the standard 10 search results to a mere 7 on more than 18% of Google searches! This article will provide a concise summary of these remarkable findings concerning the “Incredible Shrinking Organic SERPs,” followed by my personal insights and analysis. To begin, let’s examine a graph depicting the proportion of first-page search results with fewer than 10 organic listings since April 4, 2012:

Remarkably, around August 12-14, the percentage of first-page search results displaying fewer than 10 organic listings surged from less than 2% to over 18% in just two days! It’s worth noting that a 30% reduction in organic listings across 18.3% of SERPs equates to a disappearance of roughly 5.5% of all first-page organic listings!

Which Search Queries are Affected by this Google SERP Adjustment?

Intrigued by Dr. Pete’s analysis of the modified Google SERP, I conducted my own quick investigation using nexus-security.github.io’s top 200 organic keywords. My goal was to identify the types of keyword searches impacted by this change. As the esteemed Dr. Pete aptly stated, “a sample size below 200 is an affront to any God-fearing SEO!” Despite my relatively small sample size, here’s what I discovered:

• All (100%) of the organic searches I examined that included sitelinks also exhibited the new Google SERP format with 7 or fewer organic listings.
• Conversely, all (100%) of the organic searches I reviewed that did not feature sitelinks maintained the typical 10 organic listings.

Based on my preliminary research, I deduce that keyword searches containing organic sitelinks, often associated with branded or navigational searches, tend to display 7 or fewer organic listings, deviating from the standard 10.

Update: I saw dozens of google searches with just 5 organic listings this evening! I’m curious to hear your observations! Share your thoughts in the comments below!

Why Does This Matter?

At nexus-security, I’ve invested considerable effort in SEO to attract substantial organic traffic to my website each month. Prior to this recent update, a fundamental SEO strategy was to secure a first-page organic ranking for a pertinent, high-volume, branded keyword search.

Let’s consider the keyword “adwords” as a real-world illustration. This qualifies as a branded/navigational search, where individuals searching for “adwords” are typically seeking the AdWords login URL, which is adwords.google.com. However, since it’s not the easiest URL to recall, most people resort to a Google search and simply click on the AdWords login page link. I must admit, even I engage in this practice despite knowing the AdWords login URL. It’s probably a testament to my laziness and the desire to save a few keystrokes!

My company previously held an organic ranking on page 1 for “adwords” searches with our AdWords Grader tool, a tool that provides a free, instant audit of Google Ads accounts. Through strategic content marketing and PR initiatives, we successfully acquired enough high-quality organic links to earn a position on page one for this highly competitive search term.

Below is the organic search query data for the keyword “adwords” extracted from my Google Webmaster Tools account. I’ve concealed some data points, as I don’t usually publicly disclose web analytics data. The crucial point here is that our average ranking in the United States over the past month was 8.4.

Previously, this would have guaranteed a page one listing. Unfortunately, with Google’s recent shift from 10 to 7 organic listings for this particular search results page, the AdWords Grader, on average, no longer appears on the first page organically for “adwords” searches.

Note: If you still happen to see an organic listing for nexus-security.github.io within the top 7 results, it’s likely because you’ve visited nexus-security.github.io in the past, and Google is personalizing your search results accordingly.

While the click-through rate for my organic “AdWords” listing was relatively low, it still translated into hundreds of organic clicks per month when considering the hundreds of thousands of monthly searches in the US alone. Moreover, we were reaping the benefits of brand visibility by appearing on the first page of organic search results for “adwords.”

It was akin to running “free” display advertising targeted at individuals interested in AdWords, as the CTRs we observed were comparable to what you might expect from Google Display Network campaigns.

Regrettably, after nearly a year of enjoying the advantages of that prime first-page listing on a strategically significant branded organic search result, it seems my remaining options are limited to:

• Intensifying efforts to generate more links and shares for that page in hopes of improving rankings. However, considering the competition from existing organic listings, including the official AdWords site, Wikipedia, the official AdWords blog, the official AdWords Twitter page, and others, this endeavor feels akin to embarking on an SEO suicide mission.
• Increasing AdWords spending on that keyword, which could very well be Google’s intention behind this change.

What Motivates Google to Make Such SERP Modifications?

Yesterday, an engaging discussion unfolded on Search Engine Land, probing into the rationale behind Google’s decision and the potential benefits for users. Shari Thurow, author of Search Engine Visibility, made a noteworthy comment on Search Engine Land (emphasis mine):

“I see the benefit. If the query is clearly navigational, then searchers don’t look (or click) very far into SERPs. That’s been a known fact for well over 5 years.

If the query is a combination informational/navigational, again I see the benefit. SEOs need to stop injecting their personal opinions onto web searchers. Their intent isn’t always the same as our personal opinions…

… searchers with clear navigational intent don’t look (or click) too far down the page. Query reformulation or refinement is quite common if a navigational query doesn’t deliver the most relevant results at the top of the SERP. This is true on desktops, tablets, and mobile/cell phones. I (and my company staff) observe a lot of navigational queries on cell phones.

Shari’s insights are well-articulated. Google could certainly argue that this change is driven by a desire to enhance user experience.

Having over a decade of experience in paid search, the user experience argument resonates deeply with me. One of the first principles learned in AdWords is the significance of Quality Score. Google prioritizes user experience to the extent that they would rather not display your ad at all than monetize an underperforming ad that detracts from it. It appears Google is now extending this philosophy to organic search result listings.

However, this doesn’t necessarily imply that Google isn’t attempting to make life difficult for SEOs. It’s plausible that both motivations are at play. This simply provides them with a degree of justification, similar to how they attributed the Keyword Not Provided uproar to user privacy concerns.

New Google SERP – Decoding the Implications

To borrow a question from the insightful YouTube philosopher, Hungrybear9562, “What does it all mean?”

Before delving into my thoughts, I’d like to acknowledge that as the founder of a PPC management software company, I’ve faced criticism for expressing skepticism about the value of SEO. In response, I want to reiterate the following points:

• I’ve been transparent about my position as the founder of a PPC management company.
• My opinions are equally shaped by my firsthand experiences as an SEO practitioner who spends a significant portion of my time working on SEO.
• I believe these are valid points worthy of consideration. Feedback is always welcome in the comments section.

With that said, let’s proceed!

Is Organic Search on Navigational/Branded Keywords Approaching Its Demise?

My previous post on “PPC vs. SEO for High Commercial Intent Keywords” didn’t specifically address branded/navigational keyword searches. However, if it had, I would strongly advise considering navigational/branded keyword searches as more suitable for paid search, or at the very least, leaning in favor of paid search. This rationale is based on several factors:

• The heightened difficulty of securing a top 7 listing for branded/navigational keywords
• The growing trend of reduced domain diversity within the top 7 spots, implying that the top 7 listings in branded/navigational searches are increasingly likely to originate from the same domain(s)
• The increasing prevalence of high-domain authority sites dominating organic search results
• The tendency for the first organic listing on a 7-listing SERP to be a six-pack sitelink, which commands a disproportionately large share of clicks

In fact, as I compose this post, I’m encountering numerous branded/navigational searches featuring just 5 organic search listings! Should this trend persist, organic search on navigational/branded keywords will become even more challenging.

Rethinking the Long-Term Value of SEO: Is It Truly Everlasting?

Recently, I penned a rather contentious blog post that questioned the enduring value of SEO. It posited that relying solely on SEO is ill-advised because “Google giveth, and Google taketh away.” It concluded that SEO, while multifaceted, is neither predictable nor eternal.

Google’s decision to effectively eliminate approximately 5.5% of first-page organic listings overnight exemplifies the concept of Google “taking away.” I believe these frequent alterations call into question the long-term viability of SEO. As demonstrated in my own experience, previously reliable sources of clicks, such as my consistent average ranking of 8.4 for “adwords” searches and the steady stream of clicks it generated for years, have diminished in value.

This is particularly frustrating considering the immense effort required to achieve that seemingly unattainable first-page listing in the first place.

Escalating the Assault on Free Clicks

It’s difficult to dismiss the timing of this change as purely coincidental, especially when viewed within the context of the past year. We can discern a pattern of Google intensifying its efforts to make SEO increasingly complex and arduous. Consider last month’s perplexing unnatural links notifications, followed by this month’s eradication of roughly 5.5% of first-page organic search results (Google’s first page was once synonymous with “10 blue links”). The sheer volume of these developments suggests a deliberate strategy rather than mere coincidence.

I suspect this trend will persist, unfolding month after month. Essentially, this appears to be Google’s approach to sustaining its quarterly revenue and earnings growth. Last year, Google generated nearly $40 billion in revenue. To achieve a 25% growth rate this year, given the declining trend in average CPCs, my calculations indicate they need to secure an additional 24 billion ad clicks. Those clicks need to originate from somewhere!

Putting aside any personal opinions about the aesthetics of this new Google SERP, I’m curious to hear your perspectives on my interpretation of the evolving SERP landscape.