Although Linux has been around for 25 years, it’s far from outdated. It’s not chasing trends or struggling in today’s economy. In fact, Linux is still progressing and developing, while its fundamental principles, the Linux State of Mind, remain unchanged.
Linux is more than just an operating system, it’s a philosophy. Even if you don’t fully embrace its principles, its impact is undeniable.
That’s why we’re acknowledging this significant operating system and the growing community of developers who keep it thriving.
To commemorate this milestone, the Linux Foundation recently released the seventh edition of its Linux Kernel Development Report, which provides a comprehensive overview of the work accomplished over the past two decades. The implementation of Git ten years ago simplified progress tracking (although precise figures aren’t our focus here). It’s estimated that over 14,000 developers have contributed to Linux kernel development since 2005. Representing over 1,300 companies, this pool of talent includes major industry players like Intel, Samsung, Red Hat, AMD, Google, ARM, and Texas Instruments as key sponsors of Linux kernel development.
While the epitome of open-source software, Linux kernel development is a serious endeavor. As we celebrate Linux, let’s review some kernel development milestones:
- 25 years of development
- Contributions from 14,000 developers since 2005
- 5,000 new developers joined in the past 30 months
- ~22 million lines of code currently make up the Linux Kernel
- More than 4,500 lines of new code added daily
- Development is speeding up
The Linux Philosophy
When it debuted in August 1991, few predicted the lasting influence Linus Torvalds’ open-source OS would have on the software world. At the time, tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and IBM dominated the industry. The nineties were a time of significant technological advancements, and new innovations, particularly the Internet, made remote, collaborative development possible.
Developers globally could finally work together on large-scale software projects. Toptal, and indeed every freelancer, owes a debt of gratitude to Linux pioneers who proved the viability of remote software development in the dial-up internet era. They achieved it without tools like Git, Skype, broadband, and many others we now consider essential. In fact, many of these tools were made possible by Linux-based servers and are themselves open-source.
What drove the industry to adopt Linux? Frankly, not being Microsoft played a significant role. Many UNIX users opposed proprietary operating systems and sought an open-source option. They couldn’t accept mainstream operating systems being closed off. Their goal was to create an open-source alternative, free to use, modify, and distribute.
Idealism and business rarely align, but when they do, innovative ideas emerge, championed by passionate supporters and challenged by equally passionate critics. The open-source software ecosystem remains as relevant today as it was in the early nineties. With twenty-five years of Linux development behind us, we can better understand its profound impact.
Open-Sourcing and Democratizing the Internet
However, most of us use non-Linux systems: Windows and Mac computers, smartphones, and tablets running UNIX-like systems. So why aren’t we on Linux systems? Actually, we are, indirectly. How many LAMP servers powered up today to deliver your daily emails, social media updates, ads, and information?
Personally, I believe this is the Linux community’s greatest contribution: Linux-based servers propelled the industry and legitimized open-source.
It was no longer about UNIX enthusiasts fighting against proprietary giants; Linux challenged big brands on their own turf and won. The concept was proven and embraced, demonstrating that open-source isn’t just idealistic; it’s good business.
What did we gain?
Linux lowered the barrier to entry for developers and entrepreneurs. Successful Linux distributions captured a significant share of the hosting market, pressuring competitors. In this battle, Linux servers triumphed due to several factors, ultimately dominating many segments. Today, affordable hosting is readily available, and the most cost-effective options often run on Linux. The rest of the technology stack is usually as free and open as Linux itself.
That’s what our industry gained from Linux: The ability to quickly deploy products on affordable, open-source infrastructure.
How many small projects, started on a shoestring budget, became billion-dollar companies thanks to Linux?
Where’s the Profit, Linuxowski?
A common misconception is that Linux development is solely driven by enthusiasts and offers no financial opportunities. While Linux is a labor of love, it’s also a significant business.
As mentioned earlier, development is accelerating, with more developers from more companies contributing. They’re not just volunteering their time out of goodwill; the latest report indicates unpaid kernel developers have dropped to 7.7 percent, entering single digits for the first time.
This is a positive trend. Enthusiasm alone can’t sustain a project, especially a massive one like Linux that originated a generation ago.
Furthermore, demand for Linux talent is strong and growing, as is the Linux server market share. A few years ago, it was easier to track shipped servers and hardware to estimate the number of Linux systems in use.
Not anymore.
Linux in the Cloud Era
The rise of cloud computing complicated this process. For analysts tracking numbers and trends, ambiguity is problematic, and concerns arose about Linux’s future in the cloud era. These concerns were valid (and to some extent, still are) because the cloud ecosystem started as an oligopoly dominated by companies like Amazon and Google.
While the cloud didn’t eliminate small Linux servers, it hasn’t been easy:
Some believe the cloud will revolutionize the server market and, through consolidation, permanently change the hosting industry. This economy of scale argument suggests cloud giants will offer better pricing due to their size. You don’t get favorable hardware deals with a small data center; you get them with massive cloud infrastructure requiring constant server replenishment. However, this argument seems overly simplistic.
Conversely, some are optimistic about cloud development for Linux. They believe platforms like CloudStack and OpenStack will level the playing field, ensuring a place for smaller players.
The truth likely lies somewhere in between, but that’s beyond this article’s scope. It’s plausible that both scenarios could benefit Linux in the long run. Even if the hosting industry undergoes significant consolidation, demand for Linux talent won’t disappear. It’s likely to increase, adapting to new demands.
Looking Ahead: The Next 25 Years
What does the future hold for Linux?
While difficult to predict, it’s safe to say Linux isn’t going away anytime soon:
The server industry is constantly evolving. Linux consistently captures server market share, although the cloud could reshape the industry in unforeseen ways. Nevertheless, Linux servers remain relevant.
Linux’s consumer market share remains relatively low compared to Windows and macOS. This isn’t expected to change significantly.
Linux hasn’t gained significant traction in mobile, despite Android’s dominance. The mobile market is an Android/iOS duopoly, oversaturated with platforms, making it unlikely for Linux to thrive there.
Gaming represents a potentially massive untapped market for Linux. This market is dominated by Windows on desktops, proprietary console operating systems, and Android/iOS on mobile. Valve’s SteamOS aims to bring Linux to gaming PCs, but demand for Steam Machines has been weak, leaving Linux with a negligible gaming market share.
Emerging sectors like the Internet of Things (IoT), wearables, smart home devices, and more present opportunities. Due to its open-source nature and small footprint potential, Linux-based operating systems could power various connected devices, from homes and cars to businesses.
High-performance computing could become Linux-exclusive. Linux has largely replaced UNIX and other operating systems in modern supercomputers.
Predicting Linux’s future is challenging due to its nature and community. Evolution isn’t always linear, and Linux developers have repeatedly proven this. Over the next few decades, Linux could transform into something entirely different, becoming the preferred OS for unimaginable products and services.