Alibaba Group’s research division, AliResearch, has presented its vision for the future of the digital world. During their Vision 2046 summit in Beijing, the company released its Digital Economy 2.0 report, which includes several striking predictions.
The Decline of Traditional Corporations
By 2020, AliResearch predicts that most commercial activity will happen on digital platforms. These platforms will offer businesses and consumers essential commercial infrastructure, including data, trade facilitation, payment processing, and logistics. This shift will lead to the emergence of the first digital platform handling over US$1 trillion in transactions.
The End of the Traditional Workday
By 2036, freelance and self-employed workers are expected to make up approximately half of the workforce. This change will mean the end of the traditional eight-hour workday.
Decentralized Commerce Takes Over
By 2046, it’s anticipated that small businesses and individuals will drive 80% of global trade. This change will be fueled by platform-based economic models that allow these smaller players to participate in global trade with ease.
Alibaba is dedicated to giving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the tools to evolve and thrive in this future landscape. The company envisions a new retail environment where online and offline experiences, logistics, and data are seamlessly integrated. Alibaba is also a strong supporter of the Electronic World Trade Platform (eWTP), an initiative designed to promote fair and open trade opportunities for SMEs on a global scale.
A Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report, also presented at the summit, projects that China’s digital economy, measured as eGDP, will reach approximately US$16 trillion by 2035. This represents a penetration rate of roughly 48% of the total economy, up significantly from US$1.4 trillion and a 13% penetration rate in 2015. The digital economy is expected to generate around 415 million jobs, with Alibaba’s ecosystem alone contributing over 100 million.
BCG’s outlook for this “New Retail” era suggests that technology like touch screens, mobile applications, and robotics will automate repetitive, low-skill tasks in physical stores. At the same time, businesses will actively seek sales professionals skilled in managing sales across multiple channels, both online and offline. In manufacturing, a “New Manufacturing” sector is predicted to emerge, characterized by enhanced worker productivity driven by robotics. The BCG report anticipates substantial job creation in China as intelligent manufacturing expands.
Source: AliResearch. China Foresight Forum, a new thinktank comprising 10 founding institutions including AliResearch, has been established to focus on research about the future economy.
“Looking ahead to 2046 may seem like peering into a distant future, but the work that AliResearch is undertaking today, in collaboration with our partners, holds significant weight,” says Gao Hongbing, Dean of AliResearch and VP of Alibaba Group. “We find ourselves amidst a transformative period that compels us to think beyond the confines of traditional industries, geographical limitations, and even time itself. The insights generated from our discussions today will be instrumental in helping us anticipate and prepare for the future. They will guide us in harnessing the power of platforms to maximize the social and economic benefits of the Digital Economy 2.0.”
The China Foresight Forum, a new think tank established by ten founding institutions, including AliResearch and the Chinese Academy of Social Science, was launched at the event. The forum aims to encourage knowledge sharing among different think tanks, with a specific emphasis on research related to the future of the economy.