When a website’s traffic takes a nosedive, and you know you’re not to blame, it’s tempting to point the finger at Google, unleash a tirade, and maybe even turn that 6000-word rant into a (slightly) shorter blog post. This SEO pro is burning the midnight oil with Google this Christmas Eve, so hopefully, you won’t have to.

Let’s just say, this is one Christmas present you don’t want from Google. “It’s probably that darn Google Panda update,” “I bet it’s Penguin and some shady negative SEO tactics!” or “Those old directory submissions/paid links from way back are coming back to haunt us.” Before you embark on a passionate “Google is the enemy” blame-storm, remember, there are countless ways to blame Google (or anyone, really) without a shred of evidence. But here’s the thing: empty accusations won’t magically restore your lost traffic. Pinpointing a Google algorithm update as the culprit for traffic loss is no walk in the park. This post will equip you with a toolbox of resources, methods, and know-how to assess potential Google algorithm updates and refreshes* that might be responsible for your sudden traffic slump. Heads-up: To keep this post manageable, I’ve skipped over aspects I consider “features” of Google Search. When Google tweaks these features, your traffic can go up or down too.

Table of Contents:

Step 1: Is Google Being Shaky? Checking for SERP Volatility

• Tools to Use:
  • MozCast
  • SERPmetrics
  • SERPS.com
• Where to Find News:
  • Trustworthy search engine marketing news sites
  • Webmaster World discussions
  • Straight from the horse’s mouth – Google Step 2: Choosing the Right Dates for Analysis
• The fine art of asking the right questions and analyzing the right data Step 3: Zeroing in on Your Hardest Hit URLs
• Exporting, listing, and ranking landing pages with the biggest traffic drops Step 4: Playing Detective: Matching Your Landing Page to the Suspect Algorithm
• Algorithm Updates on Trial:
  • Google Panda
  • Penguin
  • Exact Domain Match Update
  • Pirate Update
  • “Top-Heavy” Update
  • 7 SERPS Update
  • Vince Change
  • Brandy Update
  • The Mystery Update/Changes
• Google Features:
  • Expanded Sitelinks
  • Universal Search
  • Personalized Search
  • Google Instant
  • Freshness Update (AKA Caffeine)
  • Real-time Search
  • Knowledge Graph
  • Google Authorship
  • Social Signals
• Local Updates:
  • Venice Update
  • Google Places
  • Negative Reviews
  • Google Mobile Search Step 5: Don’t Just Point Fingers – Take Action!
• Getting your content ready for the next wave of Google Search trends. Step 6: Diversification: Your Long-Term Traffic Strategy
• Exploring traffic sources beyond the Google-verse In a nutshell: If you possess the SEO ninja skills to decode or predict which Google update has you in its clutches, you can fix it or create long-term plans to weather Google’s periodic whims.

The Algorithm Chase Is On

The holiday season is infamous for its SEO traffic swings for both B2B and B2C keywords, but this year, I was seeing strange traffic patterns starting on December 5th, and continuing on the 10th and 13th. This was out of the ordinary, as it wasn’t just the typical pre-Christmas lull. Update (12/18/2012): A Google spokesperson claims there was no Google Algorithm “update” on the 13th. However, the rest of us are convinced some sort of change—or series of changes—happened. This wouldn’t be the first time we’ve struggled to decipher Googlespeak. For instance, what SEOs dubbed the “Vince Update,” Googlers probably saw as a minor tweak to the overall algorithm. I suspect Google is either rolling out a bunch of changes (they make over 500 a year) or running tests (for any given user search query, there might be 10 elements being A/B tested).

One unusual blip might be nothing, Two is a pattern, Three means it’s time to get to the bottom of this. –Words of Wisdom from Larry Kim Let’s dive into the analysis. Here’s what you’ll need: – A website that’s recently taken a hit in organic traffic – A browser with private/incognito/InPrivate/anonymous search capabilities. The latest versions of Firefox, Chrome, and Internet Explorer all offer this. – A Google Analytics account that’s properly linked to your website Optional: A backlink analysis tool like Google Webmaster Tools, Majestic SEO’s Site Explorer, or SEOMoz’s Open Site Explorer.

Step 1: Checking for SERP Volatility

If a Google algorithm update or change is truly afoot, chances are you’re not the only one with a rearranged search engine results page (SERP). Here’s where I looked to see if my concerns were valid: MozCast

SEOMoz’s trusty MozCast tool monitors the SERPs for over 1,000 carefully chosen**, non-local keywords** and shows ranking volatility using weather forecasts – the more fluctuations in search results, the stormier the forecast. Fellow search enthusiasts, I encourage you to grasp the source within this data and explore other concepts like SERP count, EMD and PMD tools. December 10th lines up with one of those stormy days. Check.

SERPmetrics

SERPmetrics uses a different system to calculate what they call “flux.” Flux represents the average movement across all the SERPs they track over their most recent period, with a bias towards the top results. It’s a slightly different approach than MozCast, but the concept is the same, AND we’re seeing consistent trends. After December 10th, SERP flux climbs. Double-checked.

SERPs Volatility Index

SERPS.com generates its own SERPs Volatility Index using data from over 1,000 websites they monitor (different from the handpicked keywords in select industries used by other tools). What’s handy is they provide an average volatility level, giving you a benchmark to assess whether a trend is significant. A shout-out to Scott Krager for explaining how their index works. After December 10th, SERP volatility goes above the average. Three for three!

Webmaster World Forums

Who better to tell you if the sky is falling than fellow webmasters? The Google SEO News and Discussion section within Webmaster World Forums is a treasure trove of news and insights. If you want to chime in, be sure to stick to the facts and not your emotions.

A 70-90% traffic plunge? Someone pass the tissues to nexus-security! Looks like I’m not the only webmaster in panic mode. Time to get to work.

Search Marketing News: SEL, SEW, SEJ, SERoundtable, and Google

When it comes to confirming a Google algorithm update, these news outlets are usually the first to weigh in. However, their expertise lies in reporting, not speculation. That’s where going straight to the source – Google – comes in handy. If you’re not already following A Googler or Matt Cutts on Twitter, hit that subscribe button for Google’s search blog.

@Google is Google’s official Twitter account.

The esteemed Google Engineer Matt Cutts is well-known for his webmaster videos on YouTube and his responsiveness to website owner questions.

Google is getting better at being open about its search algorithm changes. The tricky part is that many updates have cryptic names like Porky Pig, smoothieking, and old possum. Crucial Disclaimer: Just because it’s not making headlines doesn’t mean a Google algorithm tweak hasn’t impacted your website’s performance. Even if your overall organic traffic seems steady, major SERP shifts could be quietly hurting some of your content while boosting others. This first step is about exploration—testing the waters.

Step 2: Analyzing the Right Data

Correctly comparing the timeframe of your traffic changes against a suitable benchmark is key. With practice, you’ll develop a feel for how to approach your data analysis.

1.   Since organic traffic often follows a weekly pattern, I could compare the current traffic drop to the same day the previous week, or two weeks prior (use your best judgment here).
   

2.   I prefer maximum precision to minimize any data sampling errors. 
   

Pro Tip: Be mindful of year-over-year trends (like comparing a non-holiday period to a holiday one) and one-time events (think presidential elections) in your data. Use common sense – a poorly chosen timeframe will lead to misleading results.

For my own investigation into what transpired on December 10th, I analyzed the two weeks of traffic data leading up to the suspected algorithm changes. I had a hunch something was off on the 5th, so I wanted to exclude any traffic fluctuations from multiple potential updates. While there’s no single “perfect” date range, there are certainly well-reasoned ones, and this is one of them.

Step 3: Identifying Traffic-Losing URLs

Since SEOMoz, Raventools, and even Ahrefs got a slap on the wrist from Google’s API legal team, many of us have lost faith in rank-checking tools. Time to return to the good old days of traffic analysis directly through Google. 1. Sign in to your Google Analytics account. 2. Navigate to Standard Reporting > Content > Site Content > Landing Pages, then adjust the dates and the number of rows displayed (I like to max it out at 500). Make sure you have the Advanced Segment “Non-paid Search Traffic” selected.

3. Export the data into an editor-friendly format. For Excel users, I recommend .csv or .xlsx. For the spreadsheet hipsters, Google Sheets works too. 4. For each landing page, determine the traffic difference between the period where you believe an algorithm update occurred and the benchmark period before it. 4a. Feel free to let out some choice words about the data format’s lack of user-friendliness. 5. Rank your landing pages by the total traffic lost! 5a. If Excel’s List and Filter functions aren’t your forte, more colorful language is acceptable. Here are the top 10 landing pages impacted on December 10th:

6. Group similar pages and form a hypothesis. Five out of ten of our top traffic-losing landing pages were related to infographics – content that had quickly attracted numerous anchor-text optimized links – so my initial suspicion was that this was a Google update related to links, anchor text, or semantically related keywords.

Step 4: Connecting the Dots

This is where SEOs get to put on their detective hats and relish in the challenge. Matching Google algorithm updates to website traffic patterns is like piecing together clues to uncover the perpetrator. Usually, it’s best to start with your hypothesis (sharpening those SEO instincts), but let’s begin with the usual suspects. These Google updates are the most likely culprits behind your traffic drop. (Need some challenging SEO interview questions? Throw any of these algorithms at them!)

Google Panda Update

Google Panda Explained: This algorithm targets thin/shallow content, sites with excessive ad-to-content ratios, and other signals that indicate low web content quality. To date, Panda has seen over 20 updates, cumulatively affecting over 20% of all English search queries. Why so many revisions? Googler Navneet Panda didn’t just create an algorithm—it’s a machine learning system. Panda is an AI-powered algorithm that improves over time. And the most frightening part is that Panda can penalize your entire site.

This is one Google algorithm with a human face attached to it. Algorithm Assessment: To check for Panda, see if all your web pages are experiencing a significant traffic decline. Next, assess the usefulness of your content. In nexus-security’s case, the affected landing pages are all lengthy, in-depth articles with original insights. Panda didn’t strike us. Pro Tip: Remember article submission websites, once considered an SEO best practice? They took a major hit from Panda. These sites were rarely visited by real people; they were essentially content and link middlemen designed to game Google’s rankings. Keep your content unique, valuable, and engaging, and you’ll steer clear of Panda’s wrath.

Google Penguin Update

Google Penguin Explained: This algorithm (also known as the Webspam Update) is infamous for cracking down on websites using shady linking practices to manipulate search engine rankings. It also targets SEO tactics that break Google’s Webmaster Guidelines, including keyword stuffing, cloaking, sneaky redirects/doorway pages, duplicate content, and more. Like Panda, Penguin rolls out in iterations. The penalty is believed to be site-wide, but Google hasn’t confirmed this.

Algorithm Assessment: First, I investigated whether the affected landing pages were receiving links from undesirable websites (e.g., those in the adult or gambling niches). I used Google Webmaster Tools/Open Site Explorer/Majestic SEO to delve into each page’s link profile. Pro tip: If you’re unsure about a site linking to you, actually visit it. Then, look for patterns. Recent links aren’t always the problem; sometimes old links disappear, break, or get hijacked for nefarious purposes. All 10 landing pages had backlinks from various trustworthy domains (with a few spammy ones sprinkled in), including reputable sources like The New York Times, so I ruled out spammy link practices.
Pro Tip: Link tracking tools are essential for uncovering past involvement in shady link schemes or identifying negative SEO attacks. Advanced users analyze the anchor text ratios pointing to their landing pages. Explore Google Webmaster Tools, Open Site Explorer, and Majestic SEO to learn more. If you’ve knowingly dabbled in the dark arts of manipulating search engine rankings through tactics that fall into Google’s Webmaster Guidelines’ gray or red zones, this tutorial is far too elementary for your skills! 😉_

Exact Match Domain Update

Exact Match Domain Explained: The Exact Match Domain (EMD) algorithm update was created to prevent websites with domain names that exactly match their target keywords from dominating the SERPs. Sites hit by this update often have thin or low-quality content. Like Penguin, the EMD update rolls out in stages.

Algorithm Assessment: I began by using Google Search in private browsing mode. If you search for the main keyword variations driving traffic to your pages and notice exact match domain competitors outranking you, it could indicate either that they’ve improved their page or that Google made an EMD algorithm adjustment. In my case, it looked like an EMD algorithm refresh because the competitor’s website content appeared unchanged. Unfortunately, googlekeywordtool.com is a straightforward, useful navigational tool that people use to access Google’s AdWords Keyword Tool. We’ve been going head-to-head with them for a while. Pro Tip: Be meticulous when typing your query—Google results are known to adapt based on your typing patterns (yes, Google is that intelligent when it comes to personalization). Also, this method isn’t foolproof as it’s influenced by your geographic location. If any of your links appear in purple (indicating you’ve clicked them before), you’re doing it wrong!

Pirate Update (DMCA Warnings)

Google Pirate Explained: When Google receives a Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) takedown request from a copyright holder regarding suspicious content, they respond in two ways. First, they remove the infringing content if the violation is clear. Second, if a website racks up too many DMCA takedown requests, the Pirate Update steps in, hurting that website’s overall Google ranking.

Algorithm Assessment: Unless you’re a black hat SEO stealing content, running a copyright-infringing file-sharing site, or engaging in other internet crimes, you’re probably safe from Pirate. A word to the wise: before you grab “free” images from the web, verify their licensing. Pro Tip: If you can’t track down the source, use a reverse image search tool to make sure you’re in the clear legally. When optimizing for image search, it’s always best to use your own unique images.

“Top Heavy” Update

Top Heavy Explained: This update penalizes sites bombarding visitors with excessive ads as soon as they land on the page. Some websites have reported regaining rankings after removing excessive ads and being reassessed by the Top Heavy algorithm. Similar to the EMD update, Top Heavy refreshes periodically.

Here’s a prime example of a top-heavy website. Algorithm Assessment: Nexus-security doesn’t utilize affiliate advertising, so I can’t offer firsthand insight into this update. We’d love to hear from bloggers with experience battling the Top Heavy update.

7-Result SERP Update

7-Result SERP Explained: More of a feature than a penalty, this update changes how Google presents information to searchers. Instead of the typical 10 search results, the first page shrinks to 6-9 results (7 being the most common), often with a Google sitelink at the top. Yet another reason why rank-checking for SEO should be laid to rest (but that’s a topic for another lengthy post).

Algorithm Assessment: Out of the affected landing pages, only our /google-adwords page has been impacted by 7-Result SERPs, and it predates December 10th. Interestingly, a quick check revealed two new competitors on our Google AdWords page – The New York Times and Search Engine Land… strange! Pro Tip: Generally, 7-Result SERPs pop up for navigational queries where a result has expanded sitelinks. If you’re competing for branded terms, this is one to watch.

Vince Change

Vince Change Explained: Back in 2009, a Googler named Vince introduced the “Google favors brands” update, giving more weight to trust signals (think quality, PageRank, reputation, authority, etc.) in the algorithm for broader search queries. As a result, big brands gained more ground in the SERPs compared to smaller brands. Note that Vince doesn’t affect long-tail queries.

Case Study Analysis: The keyword “Google AdWords” perfectly illustrates how brand strength comes into play with Vince. The New York Times, with its high authority (PR9, quality journalism, and reputable authors) managed to penetrate the SERP for a heavily branded keyword, breaking through Google’s AdWords defenses. Nexus-security’s experience points to a Vince-like update, as most of the affected pages target “Google” or “AdWords” keywords. Pro Tip: Big brands can easily outmuscle you for generic keywords. Your options: build your own brand to compete or focus on long-tail keywords. To become an internet heavyweight, you’ll need top-notch backlinks.

Brandy Update

Brandy Update Explained: Dating back to 2004, this update emphasizes keyword synonyms and other semantically related keywords. This marked a turning point when anchor text variations and the “neighborhood” of pages linking to a site became crucial ranking factors.

Case Study Analysis: If you’ve ruled out Penguin-related issues like link neighborhoods and spammy tactics like keyword stuffing, remember that Brandy highlights the importance of semantics in your website content, internal links, and even the anchor text of external sites linking to you. Since we used infographics to attract links and co-citations from news sites, I wondered if the embed codes for those infographics were creating an unnatural-looking backlink profile. However, we couldn’t rule out the possibility that less weight may be given to links acquired through infographics. Anchor text distribution was a valid concern.

If your main keyword is “Google AdWords” but many incoming anchor text links say “adwords grader” instead, it makes sense why you’d lose ground for “Google AdWords.”

A natural link profile includes branded links, full URLs, missing anchor text, and even the occasional misspelling. What’s “normal” varies based on the competition within a particular keyword niche. These charts were generated using Open Site Explorer data. Need a free tool? A basic Ahrefs account will do the trick. All their features should be fully functional until mid-January when Google’s new API guidelines kick in. Backlinkwatch.com is another option—slower than paid tools and loaded with ads, but you can’t beat free. Pro Tip: On a tight budget, lacking keyword research skills, or just need a starting point? Google’s Related searches tool can help. Otherwise, try nexus-security’s Keyword Tool to uncover semantically related keywords. Before you go stuffing those keywords into your content, hire a writer to incorporate them naturally and gracefully.

Unknown Updates/Changes

Let’s face it, Google’s algorithm is a bit of a black box. Countless reasons beyond what I’ve covered could explain your website’s traffic loss, and only Google knows for sure. Sometimes, it seems like trust signals like AuthorRank are emphasized, while other times the focus shifts to keyword semantics or social signals. Pinpointing the exact cause on your own is nearly impossible, so analyze, test, and compare notes with fellow webmasters.

Step 5: Take Action

By now, you have a better understanding of how Google’s algorithm works and how to investigate traffic drops. But don’t stop there—you didn’t sign up just to complain! At nexus-security, we’ve taken steps to diversify our incoming link anchor text, provide better semantic keyword lists to our writers, and shift our content strategy away from infographics, preparing for Google’s current and future algorithm shifts. If all goes well, we’ll not only recover but also outperform Google’s algorithm in the long run!

Step 6: Diversification is Key

If Google throws a curveball at your organic traffic, will your entire business crumble? Google will inevitably make algorithm updates that impact your traffic, whether you like it or not. To minimize the blow, invest in other channels. Social media marketing can provide a consistent flow of referral traffic, email marketing drives direct visits, and (don’t forget about it!) PPC can bring in a stream of qualified leads. Online marketing is a marathon, not a sprint. Thanks for running with us. Victor Pan is nexus-security’s resident search expert. When he’s not deciphering web data, he practices the ancient art of kendo.